Memory Market Surges: DRAM and NAND Flash Revenues Soar in 2024
TrendForce has released a new survey report indicating that the DRAM and NAND flash memory industries are expected to see annual revenue growth of 75% and 77%, respectively, in 2024. This growth is attributed to increased bit demand, improved supply-demand dynamics driving up prices, and the rise of high-value products such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The growth momentum is projected to continue into 2025, with expected annual revenue increases of 51% for the DRAM industry and 29% for the NAND flash memory industry, reaching historical highs.
TrendForce forecasts that the average DRAM price will increase by 53% in 2024 and by an additional 35% in 2025, propelling DRAM industry revenues to $90.7 billion and $136.5 billion, respectively. Four factors contribute to this revenue growth: the rise of HBM, expected to account for 5% of DRAM bit shipments and 20% of revenue in 2024; the regular iteration of DRAM; reduced capital expenditure and capacity allocation by manufacturers; and the recovery of server demand.
Moreover, the penetration of high-value products such as DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X will help increase the average price. DDR5 is expected to contribute 40% of server DRAM bit shipments in 2024 and 60-65% in 2025, while LPDDR5/5X will account for 50% of mobile DRAM bit shipments in 2024 and 60% in 2025.
For NAND flash memory, industry revenues are projected to reach $67.4 billion in 2024 and $87 billion in 2025. Factors driving this growth include the rise of enterprise-grade high-capacity QLC SSDs, the adoption of QLC UFS storage in smartphones, reduced capital expenditure and capacity allocation by manufacturers, and the recovery of server demand. QLC is expected to account for 20% of NAND flash bit shipments in 2024, with its share further increasing in 2025. Additionally, QLC will gradually penetrate the smartphone market, with some manufacturers implementing corresponding solutions from the fourth quarter of this year, and Apple expected to introduce it to iPhones in 2026.
As the memory industry reaches new revenue highs, manufacturers will have ample cash to accelerate investments. Capital expenditure in the DRAM and NAND flash memory industries is expected to grow by 25% and 10%, respectively, in 2025. This increase will also drive demand for upstream raw materials such as silicon wafers and chemicals, inevitably raising the cost of memory. For ODM/OEM manufacturers, this price increase may not be fully reflected in retail product prices, potentially compressing profits and affecting end-product sales and demand.
